WP4: Computational modeling platform
Epiwork Computational Modeling Platform is based on GLEaM, a model that integrates sociodemographic and population mobility data in a spatially structured stochastic disease approach to simulate the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. GLEaM is based on a meta-population approach in which the world is divided into geographical census areas. These areas are connected by human-travel fluxes that correspond to transportation infrastructures and mobility patterns, and that together form a network of interactions. The model is based on a highly detailed population database containing demographic data in census cells that cover the entire Earth’s surface in a grid of 15 × 15 minute squares. To this, we add information on the long-range airline fluxes of people travelling to and from the airports listed in the International Air Transport Authority (IATA) database. In addition to long-range air travel, GLEaM also incorporates short-range mobility patterns that correspond to ground movements and commuting patterns, based on data from more than 30 countries on five continents. The figures below show an extract of the three GLEaM layers centred in Europe. Read more about GLEaM.
GLEaM has been extensively used to simulate the spread of the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic in real time. The special focus on H1N1 influenza contains detailed reports on the evolution of the A(H1N1) pandemic and the predictions we made in summer 2009 on the incoming winter influenza wave. The results are presented in a series of maps, charts and animations, displaying the predicted geotemporal evolution of the H1N1 flu epidemic in Europe and comparing different intervention scenarios.
The GLEaMviz Simulator
The core simulation of GLEaM is coupled to a visualization interface called GLEaMviz. The final goal of this project is he development of a computational tool to be used to forecast and anticipate the spreading of emerging diseases. On the other hand, the use of such a tool cannot be limited to a few research groups with specific computational skills and the project is working to make the GLEaM platform available to the scientific community at large. In particular the aim is at developing an easy to use interface to the software. For this purpose, the GLEaMviz Simulator has been developed, which is a software that allows the simulation and visualization of the spread of epidemics at the worldwide scale. It allows the user to specify and remotely execute simulations, and retrieve and visualize the results.
The GLEaMviz Simulator is a software system with an intuitive and flexible GUI for the simulation of emerging infectious diseases spreading across the world, that we developed during the last 2 years. The software system levers on GLEaM, and its design maximizes ﬂexibility in the deﬁnition of the disease compartmental model and in the conﬁguration of the simulation scenario, allowing the user to set a variety of parameters, from compartment-speciﬁc features, to transition values, to environmental effects. The output of the simulation is then provided in terms of a dynamic map visualization and sets of charts to quantitatively describe the geotemporal evolution of the disease.
Download the GLEaMviz Simulator to explore global epidemic simulations.
The software is based on a Client-server system. The Client can be installed on the user’s local machine, and it allows the user to setup the simulations that will be executed on the server, thus avoiding specific requirements for large computational capabilities on the user’s side. The Client consists of four principal components: 1) the main window with the Simulations History; 2) the Compartmental Model Builder; 3) the Simulation Wizard; and 4) the Visualization Windows. The main workflow and the role of the components are outlined in the diagram in the Figure below.
The GLEaMviz Simulator Client uses the Adobe AIR 1.5 runtime and can thus be installed on recent versions of the following operating systems: Windows, Mac OS X, Linux. The Public Edition of the client available from http://www.gleamviz.org/simulator/ is pre-configured to use the GLEaMviz server made available by gleamviz.org. There is thus no need to install the server in order to use this client. However, in order to avoid an overload on this server, a number of limitations are enforced in this setup. Research groups interested in an unlimited version of the GLEaMviz system are invited to contact us at firstname.lastname@example.org.
Check out all the software features at the GLEaMviz Simulator webpage.