Papers
WP1:
- Guy Katriel and Lewi Stone. Pandemic influenza dynamics and the breakdown of herd immunity. PLoS Curr Influenza. 2009 October 1: RRN1046.
- Santhakumaran, S., O’Brien; K, Bakker, R., Ealden, T., Shafer, LA., Daniel, RM., Chapman, R., Hayes, RJ., White, RG. The potential impact of polygyny on long-duration STI prevalence using simulated sexual networks (Submitted to the journal STI)
- Martins, J., Pinto, A., Stollenwerk, N. (2009). A scaling analysis in the SIRI epidemiological model, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 479–496.
- Martins, J., Aguiar, M., Pinto, A., Stollenwerk, N. (2009). On the series expansion of the spatial SIS evolution operator, accepted for publication in Journal of Difference Equations and Applications.
- M. Aguiar, N. Stollenwerk, B. Kooi, Torus bifurcation, isolas and chaotic attractors in a simple dengue fever model with ADE and temporary cross immunity, Intern. Journal of Computer Mathematics. In press.
- S. Ballesteros, A. Camacho and B. Cazelles, Introducing gradual antigenic drift in co-circulating cross reactive antigenic cluster models, Proceedings of the 9th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, 2009, edited by Jesus Vigo Auiar et al., Salamanca, 2009, pp. 1471-1482
- Y. Berchenko, Y. Artzy-Randrop, M. Teicher, L. Stone, Emergence and size of the giant component in clustered random graphs with a given degree distribution, Physical Review Letters. Vol. 102 (13) 138701.
- J.P. Boto and N. Stollenwerk (2009). Fractional calculus and Levy flights: modelling spatial epidemic spreading, Proceedings of 9th Conference on Computational and Mathematical Methods in Science and Engineering, CMMSE 2009, edited by Jesus Vigo Aguiar et al., Salamanca, pp. 177—188.
- Nico Stollenwerk, J.P. Boto, (2009). Reaction-superdiffusion systems in epidemiology, an application of fractional calculus, Proceedings of the International Conference on Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics, ICNAAM, Simos, Theodore E.; Psihoyios, George; Tsitouras, Ch., (eds.)
- A. Huppert, G. Katriel, R. Yaari, U. Roll, R. Balicer, L. Stone, Mathematical models as a tool for facing the influenza pandemic, HaRefuah (Hebrew) 149, p 4-8
- Bacaër N, Gomes MGM (2009) On the final size of epidemics with seasonality. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 71:1954-66.
- van Noort SP, Stollenwerk N, Stone L (2009) Analytic likelihood function for data analysis in the starting phase of an influenza outbreak Proceedings of CMMSE 2009, ISBN 978-84-612-9727-6.
- Rodrigues P, Margheri A, Rebelo C, Gomes MGM (2009) Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates. J Theor Biol 259:280-90.
- R. Parshani, S. Carmi, and S. Havlin (2010), Epidemic threshold for the SIS model on random networks (submitted).
- L. Daqing, K. Kosmidis, A. Bunde and S. Havlin (2010), Percolation of spatially constraint networks (submitted).
WP2:
- D. Brockmann, V. David and A. Morales Gallardo, in Diffusion Fundamentals III, C. Chmelik, N. Kanellopoulos, J. Kärger and D. Theodorou (eds.), Leipziger Universitätsverlag (2009)
- D. Brockmann, Human Mobility and Spatial Disease Dynamics, Reviews of Nonlinear Dynamics and Complexity, H. G. Schuster (ed.), Wiley-VCH (2009)
- D.Balcan, V. Colizza, B. Gonçalves, H. Hu, J. J. Ramasco, A. Vespignani Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106, 21484-21489 (2009).
WP3:
- M. J. Silva, F. A. B. da Silva, L. F. Lopes, F. M. Couto, Building a Digital Library for Epidemic Modelling, Proceedings of ICDL 2010 - The International Conference on Digital Libraries New Delhi, India, February, 2010.
- L. F. Lopes, J. Zamite, B. Tavares, F. Couto, F. Silva, M. J. Silva, Automated Social Network Epidemic Data Collector, INForum - Simpósio de Informática September, 2009.
WP4:
- S. Merler and M. Ajelli, The role of population heterogeneity and human mobility in the spread of pandemic influenza, Proceeding of the Royal Society B, 277:557-565, 2010
- M. Ajelli and S. Merler, An individual-based model of hepatitis A transmission, Journal of Theoretical Biology, 259(3):478-488, 2009.
- P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, D. Balcan, H. Hu, B. Goncalves, J. Ramasco, D. Paolotti, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, W. Van den Broeck, V. Colizza and A. Vespignani, Modeling vaccination campaigns and the Fall/Winter 2009 activity of the new A(H1N1) influenza in the Northern Hemisphere, Emerging Health Threats Journal, 2009 2:e11
- D. Balcan, H. Hu, B. Goncalves, P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, J.J. Ramasco, D. Paolotti, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, W. Van den Broeck, V. Colizza, A. Vespignani, Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility, BMC Medicine 2009 7:45
- D. Balcan, V. Colizza, A. Singer, C. Chouaid, H. Hu, B. Gonçalves, P. Bajardi, C. Poletto, J.J. Ramasco, N. Perra, M. Tizzoni, D. Paolotti, W. Van den Broeck, A.J. Valleron, A. Vespignani, Modeling the critical care demand and antibiotics resources needed during the Fall 2009 wave of influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, PLoS Currents: Influenza, 2009 Dec 7:RRN1133.
- V. Colizza, A. Vespignani, N. Perra, C. Poletto, B. Goncalves, H. Hu, D. Balcan, D. Paolotti, W. Van den Broeck, M.Tizzoni, P. Bajardi, J.J.Ramasco, Estimate of Novel Influenza H1N1 cases in Mexico at the early stage of the pandemic with a spatially structured epidemic model, PLoS Currents Influenza, 2009 Nov 18:RRN1129.
- M. Ajelli, B. Gonçalves, D. Balcan, V. Colizza, H. Hu, J. J. Ramasco, S. Merler and A. Vespignani, Comparing large-scale computational approaches to epidemic modeling: agent-based versus structured metapopulation models, BMC Infectious Diseases 2010, 10:190.
WP5:
- I.H.M. Friesema, C.E. Koppeschaar, G.A. Donker, F. Dijkstra, S.P. van Noort, R. Smallenburg, W. van der Hoek, M.A.B. van der Sande “Internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illness in the general population: Experience of five influenza seasons in the Netherlands“, Vaccine 27 (2009) 6353–6357
- K.T.D. Eames, N. Tilston, D. Paolotti, W. J. Edmunds, Rapid assessment of pandemic and seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in the UK: an internet based survey, (in preparation)
- K.T.D. Eames, N. Tilston, D. Paolotti, T. Ealden, W. J. Edmunds, Behavioural change during the swine flu pandemic, (in preparation)
- J. Edmunds, M. Baguelin, M. Jit, S. Flasche, P. White, Vaccination against pandemic influenza A/H1N1v in England: a real-time economic evaluation, Vaccine 28 (2010) 2370-2384
WP6:
- Bexelius C, Merk H, Sandin S, Nyren O, Kühlmann-Berenzon S, Linde A, Litton JE. Interactive Voice Response and web-based questionnaires for population-based infectious disease reporting (submitted)
WP8:
- Godinho A (2009) Epiwork: Developing the framework for a European forecast infrastructure. Research Review Magazine 9: 49.


